Dr James Hansen’s Predictions (1)

Dr Hansen’s 1988 testimonial to Congress

“My last viewgraph shows global maps of temperature anomalies for a particular month, July, for several different years between 1986 and 2029, as computed with our global climate model for the intermediate trace gas scenario B. As shown by the graphs ……… at the present time in the 1980s the greenhouse warming is smaller than the natural variability of the local temperature. So, in any given month, there is almost as much area that is cooler than normal as there is area warmer than normal. A few decades in the future, as shown on the right, it is warm almost everywhere.”  (Emphasis added)

ie by 2018

 Hansen et al 1988

 (2) The greenhouse warming should be clearly identifiable in the 1990s; the global warming within the next several years is predicted to reach and maintain a level at least three standard deviations above the climatology of the 1950. (Emphasis added)

ie by 1995

 

How is this working out?

The models of median global temperature anomalies have certainly behaved as predicted.

HADCRUT4.4 reached +3 Standard Deviations in 1990 and maintained >+3 Standard Deviations since 1997

Year Anomaly (oC) SD (1950s baseline)
1990 0.294 3.45
1991 0.255 3.01
1992 0.104 1.77
1993 0.145 2.12
1994 0.206 2.65
1995 0.323 3.63
1996 0.181 2.39
1997 0.39 4.25
1998 0.535 5.58
1999 0.307 3.54
2000 0.294 3.45
2001 0.439 4.69
2002 0.495 5.22
2003 0.507 5.31
2004 0.448 4.78
2005 0.543 5.67
2006 0.505 5.31
2007 0.493 5.14
2008 0.394 4.34
2009 0.504 5.31
2010 0.555 5.76
2011 0.421 4.52
2012 0.467 4.96
2013 0.492 5.22
2014 0.564 5.85
2015 0.675 7.53
2016 7.62

 However Dr Hansen predicted that by now it should be  ‘warm almost everywhere’.

Is this happening?

Looking at the Mean Annual Central England  Temperature (CET) Record.

By 2016 Mean Annual CET has only TWICE (2006 & 2014) exceeded +3 Standard Deviations from Climate Normal in the 1950s (1921 – 1959) as defined in Hansen et al 1988

Year Mean Temperature SD (1950s baseline) Rank SD SD

(1921-1950)

SD

(1922-1951)

SD

(1923-1952)

SD

(1924-1953)

SD

(1925-1954)

SD

(1926-1955)

SD

(1927-1956)

SD

(1928-1957)

SD

(1929-1958)

SD

(1930-1959)

1980 9.42 -0.35 144 -0.33 -0.26 -0.31 -0.37 -0.37 -0.38 -0.30 -0.36 -0.35 -0.44
1981 9.28 -0.67 174 -0.63 -0.58 -0.64 -0.71 -0.71 -0.73 -0.63 -0.68 -0.67 -0.74
1982 9.86 0.67 63 0.61 0.74 0.75 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.73 0.66 0.66 0.53
1983 10.10 1.23 37 1.12 1.29 1.32 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.29 1.21 1.22 1.05
1984 9.75 0.42 81 0.37 0.49 0.48 0.43 0.43 0.42 0.47 0.40 0.41 0.29
1985 8.90 -1.55 255 -1.43 -1.45 -1.56 -1.63 -1.63 -1.65 -1.51 -1.56 -1.54 -1.58
1986 8.81 -1.76 273 -1.63 -1.65 -1.77 -1.85 -1.85 -1.87 -1.72 -1.76 -1.75 -1.77
1987 9.08 -1.13 221 -1.05 -1.04 -1.12 -1.20 -1.19 -1.21 -1.09 -1.14 -1.13 -1.18
1988 9.80 0.53 76 0.48 0.61 0.60 0.55 0.55 0.54 0.59 0.52 0.53 0.39
1989 10.54 2.25 10 2.05 2.29 2.38 2.34 2.34 2.35 2.32 2.22 2.23 2.02
1990 10.65 2.50 4 2.28 2.54 2.64 2.61 2.61 2.62 2.57 2.47 2.48 2.26
1991 9.58 0.02 111 0.01 0.10 0.08 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.07 0.01 0.02 -0.09
1992 9.87 0.70 61 0.63 0.76 0.77 0.72 0.72 0.71 0.75 0.68 0.69 0.55
1993 9.52 -0.12 120 -0.12 -0.03 -0.07 -0.13 -0.13 -0.14 -0.07 -0.13 -0.12 -0.22
1994 10.29 1.67 27 1.52 1.72 1.78 1.74 1.74 1.74 1.73 1.65 1.65 1.47
1995 10.55 2.27 9 2.07 2.32 2.40 2.37 2.36 2.37 2.34 2.24 2.25 2.04
1996 9.22 -0.81 185 -0.75 -0.72 -0.79 -0.86 -0.85 -0.87 -0.77 -0.82 -0.81 -0.88
1997 10.56 2.29 8 2.09 2.34 2.43 2.39 2.39 2.40 2.36 2.27 2.28 2.06
1998 10.35 1.81 21 1.65 1.86 1.92 1.88 1.88 1.89 1.87 1.78 1.79 1.60
1999 10.65 2.50 4 2.28 2.54 2.64 2.61 2.61 2.62 2.57 2.47 2.48 2.26
2000 10.32 1.74 24 1.58 1.79 1.85 1.81 1.81 1.81 1.80 1.71 1.72 1.53
2001 9.97 0.93 52 0.84 0.99 1.01 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.98 0.91 0.92 0.77
2002 10.63 2.46 7 2.24 2.50 2.59 2.56 2.56 2.57 2.53 2.43 2.44 2.21
2003 10.54 2.25 10 2.05 2.29 2.38 2.34 2.34 2.35 2.32 2.22 2.23 2.02
2004 10.50 2.16 15 1.97 2.20 2.28 2.24 2.24 2.25 2.22 2.13 2.14 1.93
2005 10.48 2.11 18 1.92 2.16 2.23 2.20 2.19 2.20 2.18 2.08 2.09 1.88
2006 10.87 3.01 2 2.75 3.05 3.17 3.14 3.14 3.15 3.09 2.98 2.99 2.74
2007 10.50 2.16 15 1.97 2.20 2.28 2.24 2.24 2.25 2.22 2.13 2.14 1.93
2008 9.97 0.93 52 0.84 0.99 1.01 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.98 0.91 0.92 0.77
2009 10.14 1.32 33 1.20 1.38 1.42 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.38 1.30 1.31 1.14
2010 8.86 -1.64 265 -1.52 -1.54 -1.65 -1.73 -1.73 -1.75 -1.61 -1.65 -1.64 -1.66
2011 10.72 2.67 3 2.43 2.70 2.81 2.78 2.78 2.79 2.74 2.64 2.64 2.41
2012 9.72 0.35 85 0.31 0.42 0.41 0.35 0.36 0.35 0.40 0.33 0.34 0.22
2013 9.61 0.09 103 0.07 0.17 0.15 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.14 0.08 0.09 -0.02
2014 10.95 3.20 1 2.92 3.23 3.36 3.34 3.33 3.35 3.27 3.17 3.17 2.91
2015 10.31 1.72 26 1.56 1.77 1.83 1.78 1.78 1.79 1.78 1.69 1.70 1.51
2016 10.34 1.78 22 1.63 1.84 1.90 1.86 1.86 1.86 1.85 1.76 1.77 1.58

Which does not fit in well with what was expected.

At the individual station level:

UK Meteorological office Historical data 

9 of the published 37 long term data records allow calculation of 1921-1950 Climate Normal.

Year Armagh Bradford Durham Eskdalemuir Oxford Sheffield Stornoway Waddington Wick Airport
1970 -0.16 0.12 0.42 0.06 0.19 0.21 -1.40 -0.84 -0.83
1971 0.82 0.59 0.96 1.24 0.24 0.69 0.43 -0.44 1.36
1972 -1.41 -0.42 -0.19 0.08 -0.55 -0.54 -0.79 -1.61 0.40
1973 -0.08 0.19 0.35 0.28 0.18 0.43 -0.91 -0.40 -0.37
1974 -0.83 0.10 -0.02 0.55 0.03 -0.08 -0.04 -1.07 0.43
1975 0.88 0.82 0.71 1.41 0.76 0.82 -0.10 0.19 0.79
1976 0.08 0.56 0.62 1.12 1.09 0.64 0.38 0.13 1.01
1977 -0.84 -0.39 -0.15 0.18 -0.33 -0.58 -0.81 -1.20 -0.63
1978 -0.35 -0.29 -0.10 0.16 -0.46 -0.43 -0.76 -1.56 -0.66
1979 -2.33 -1.10 -0.86 -1.69 -1.14 -1.07 -2.56 -2.32 -1.77
1980 -0.61 -0.13 0.19 -0.02 -0.19 -0.06 -0.11 -1.38 -0.11
1981 -0.69 -0.46 -0.07 -0.59 -0.43 -0.38 -1.15 -1.63 -1.15
1982 0.11 0.51 0.66 0.75 1.00 0.71 0.04 -0.13 0.30
1983 0.81 0.62 0.91 1.32 1.37 0.73 -0.20 -0.07 0.11
1984 -0.25 0.52 0.56 1.08 0.71 0.37 0.10 -0.86 0.24
1985 -1.55 -0.64 -0.70 -1.29 -1.30 -0.74 -1.25 -2.22 -1.26
1986 -1.99 -0.88 -0.79 -1.61 -1.46 -1.30 -1.58 -2.55 -1.36
1987 -0.98 -0.33 -0.24 -0.84 -0.71 -0.64 -1.00 -1.86 -0.85
1988 0.31 0.66 1.11 0.94 0.38 0.51 0.51 -0.20 0.95
1989 1.28 1.71 1.81 1.60 2.51 1.71 0.34 1.62 1.02
1990 1.26 1.58 2.09 1.88 2.52 2.09 0.76 2.25 1.42
1991 0.24 0.27 0.25 0.22 -0.23 0.27 0.63 -0.36 0.50
1992 0.14 0.62 0.73 0.40 0.71 0.55 0.40 0.09 0.34
1993 -0.23 -0.02 -0.04 -0.43 0.27 -0.41 -0.53 -0.93 -0.98
1994 0.14 0.88 0.48 0.38 1.84 0.64 -0.22 0.79 -0.14
1995 1.78 1.42 1.31 1.51 2.37 1.43 0.01 1.34 0.03
1996 -0.35 -0.24 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30 -0.71 -0.14 -1.51 -1.04
1997 2.21 1.76 1.72 2.23 2.44 1.66 2.08 1.56 1.84
1998 1.86 1.51 1.43 1.78 1.93 1.21 0.81 1.02 0.86
1999 1.86 2.13 1.80 2.00 2.49 1.90 0.82 1.95 0.68
2000 1.28 1.41 1.42 1.51 2.06 1.11 0.83 1.01 0.62
2001 0.75 0.83 1.08 0.73 1.23 0.53 0.39 0.28 0.01
2002 1.97 1.97 2.10 2.17 2.63 1.69 2.07 1.95 2.10
2003 1.60 1.94 2.25 2.47 1.97 1.71 2.63 2.06 2.70
2004 2.05 2.02 2.41 2.54 2.64 1.93 0.99 2.15 1.69
2005 2.12 1.96 1.97 2.16 2.43 1.67 1.61 1.67 1.81
2006 2.48 2.65 2.39 2.85 3.16 2.13 2.74 2.63 2.10
2007 2.86 2.11 2.16 2.62 2.28 1.86 2.18 2.17 1.86
2008 1.02 1.34 1.26 1.77 1.44 1.08 1.00 1.07 1.23
2009 1.18 1.46 1.74 1.80 2.07 1.35 2.26 1.29 2.02
2010 -1.33 -0.42 -0.14 -1.02 -0.14 -0.56 -0.47 -1.34 -0.87
2011 2.16 2.17 2.52 2.23 2.90 2.56 1.98 2.83 2.24
2012 0.80 0.73 1.00 0.78 1.22 0.67 0.49 0.18 0.07
2013 1.11 0.67 1.12 1.11 0.55 0.50 0.59 -0.04 1.13
2014 1.80 2.51 2.81 3.01 3.34 2.42 2.77 3.05 3.18
2015 0.38 1.49 1.81 1.08 2.43 1.63 0.52 1.86 1.24
2016 1.58 1.60 1.91 1.66 2.11 1.61 1.44 1.58 1.76
Max Deviation 2.86 2.65 2.81 3.01 3.34 2.56 3.51 3.05 3.18
Year 2007 2006 2014 2014 2014 2011 1920 2014 2014

 5 out of 9 stations have exceeded 3 Standard Deviations since 1950, 4 for 1 year (3 in 2014, 1 in 1920), 1 in 2 years (2006 & 2014).

So no anthropogenic signal at the local nor regional level.

In this small corner of the world natural variability rules.

 

 

 

 

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