Dr. James Hansen’s Predictions (2)

In 1988 Dr James Hansen had predicted that global temperatures would “reach and maintain a level at least three standard deviations above the climatology of the 1950s“.

In the first post it is clear that the Mean Annual UK temperatures lag behind this prediction. However this is only a tiny portion of the earth, what about elsewhere.?

Finding long term data is not easy but there are long term records published for New Zealand, Australia and the contiguous continental USA.

Another small section of the globe:

New Zealand Mean Annual Temperature – 7 Station Composite Data (Auckland, Masterton, Wellington, Hokitika, Nelson, Lincoln, Dunedin)

7-Station Composite
Year Temp (oC) Std Dev (1950s Climate Normal)
1950 12.12 0.32
1951 11.80 -0.48
1952 12.12 0.32
1953 12.06 0.17
1954 12.59 1.50
1955 12.78 1.98
1956 12.92 2.33
1957 12.46 1.18
1958 12.39 1.00
1959 12.15 0.40
1960 12.27 0.70
1961 12.28 0.72
1962 12.91 2.31
1963 11.96 -0.08
1964 12.02 0.07
1965 11.88 -0.28
1966 12.15 0.40
1967 12.27 0.70
1968 12.21 0.55
1969 12.18 0.47
1970 12.87 2.21
1971 13.10 2.79
1972 12.24 0.62
1973 12.69 1.75
1974 12.74 1.88
1975 12.61 1.55
1976 11.73 -0.66
1977 11.77 -0.56
1978 12.82 2.08
1979 12.55 1.40
1980 12.25 0.65
1981 12.86 2.18
1982 12.11 0.30
1983 12.03 0.10
1984 12.68 1.73
1985 12.85 2.16
1986 12.65 1.65
1987 12.77 1.96
1988 12.93 2.36
1989 12.97 2.46
1990 12.99 2.51
1991 12.17 0.45
1992 11.48 -1.29
1993 11.84 -0.38
1994 12.33 0.85
1995 12.59 1.50
1996 12.45 1.15
1997 12.27 0.70
1998 13.41 3.57
1999 13.35 3.41
2000 12.79 2.01
2001 12.90 2.28
2002 12.67 1.70
2003 12.62 1.58
2004 12.17 0.45
2005 13.11 2.81
2006 12.40 1.03
2007 12.67 1.70
2008 12.86 2.18
2009 12.29 0.75
2010 13.07 2.71
2011 12.83 2.11
2012 12.45 1.15
2013 13.33 3.36
2014 12.79 2.01
2015 12.75 1.91

 From 1909 the 7 Station composite data broke the 3 Standard Deviation limit only in 1998 & 1999, and 2013.

Both the UK and New Zealand enjoy maritime climates and therefore should reflect the effects of warming over the oceans.

 

In Australia there are 10 stations (Adelaide, Alice Springs, Cairns  , Darwin, Hobart (Tasmania), Larapuna (Tasmania), Marble Bar, Melbourne, Perth, Sydney) that allow a composite Mean Annual Temperature to be calculated.

Year Mean Annual Temperature Std Dev from 1950s Climate Normal
1950 19.37 0.20
1951 19.47 0.54
1952 19.23 -0.28
1953 19.31 0.00
1954 19.42 0.35
1955 19.45 0.46
1956 19.23 -0.28
1957 19.47 0.54
1958 21.26 6.50
1959 19.87 1.86
1960 19.25 -0.21
1961 19.93 2.07
1962 19.72 1.35
1963 19.54 0.77
1964 19.35 0.15
1965 19.55 0.80
1966 19.17 -0.46
1967 19.47 0.53
1968 19.31 -0.01
1969 19.54 0.77
1970 19.53 0.75
1971 19.56 0.83
1972 19.79 1.59
1973 20.12 2.71
1974 19.51 0.66
1975 19.72 1.37
1976 19.35 0.14
1977 19.64 1.09
1978 19.53 0.74
1979 19.93 2.08
1980 20.14 2.77
1981 20.05 2.48
1982 19.63 1.07
1983 19.83 1.75
1984 19.56 0.83
1985 19.81 1.66
1986 19.64 1.10
1987 19.79 1.60
1988 20.37 3.53
1989 19.80 1.65
1990 20.00 2.30
1991 20.08 2.57
1992 19.68 1.22
1993 19.97 2.19
1994 19.79 1.60
1995 19.62 1.02
1996 19.85 1.79
1997 19.76 1.51
1998 20.36 3.50
1999 20.06 2.51
2000 19.92 2.02
2001 19.85 1.80
2002 20.13 2.73
2003 20.18 2.92
2004 20.01 2.35
2005 20.40 3.63
2006 19.95 2.12
2007 20.36 3.51
2008 20.05 2.47
2009 20.45 3.80
2010 20.31 3.34
2011 19.95 2.14
2012 20.04 2.45
2013 20.60 4.31
2014 20.48 3.92
2015 21.54 7.46

In Australia the 10 station composite Mean Annual Temperature has broken 3 Standard deviations 12 times 1914, 1915, 1958, 1988, 1998, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2013, 2014, 2015

 This is much more supportive of Dr Hansen’s prediction, except that Australia’s temperatures were extreme in the 50s and before.

In the USA

Year Mean Temperature Anomaly Std Dev (1950s Climate Normal) Rank Std Dev
1950 -0.35 -1.06 98
1951 -0.50 -1.41 105
1952 0.14 0.08 44
1953 0.75 1.50 13
1954 0.73 1.45 14
1955 -0.18 -0.67 79
1956 0.18 0.17 41
1957 0.01 -0.22 53
1958 -0.05 -0.36 60
1959 0.05 -0.13 50
1960 -0.32 -0.99 96
1961 -0.08 -0.44 68
1962 -0.07 -0.40 63
1963 0.13 0.07 45
1964 -0.19 -0.69 81
1965 -0.18 -0.67 79
1966 -0.29 -0.93 92
1967 -0.14 -0.58 75
1968 -0.39 -1.15 101
1969 -0.29 -0.91 90
1970 -0.23 -0.77 84
1971 -0.20 -0.71 82
1972 -0.36 -1.08 99
1973 0.15 0.11 42
1974 0.13 0.07 45
1975 -0.29 -0.91 90
1976 -0.31 -0.95 94
1977 0.29 0.44 34
1978 -0.54 -1.50 107
1979 -0.63 -1.72 109
1980 0.21 0.24 39
1981 0.61 1.18 24
1982 -0.37 -1.11 100
1983 -0.08 -0.42 67
1984 -0.02 -0.29 57
1985 -0.40 -1.17 102
1986 0.72 1.44 16
1987 0.73 1.45 14
1988 0.34 0.55 32
1989 -0.10 -0.48 71
1990 0.83 1.68 12
1991 0.63 1.23 23
1992 0.32 0.51 33
1993 -0.42 -1.22 103
1994 0.47 0.86 29
1995 0.35 0.57 31
1996 -0.07 -0.41 65
1997 0.10 -0.01 47
1998 1.23 2.61 4
1999 1.03 2.16 6
2000 0.69 1.37 17
2001 0.93 1.93 8
2002 0.66 1.29 20
2003 0.69 1.36 18
2004 0.60 1.15 25
2005 0.90 1.85 10
2006 1.24 2.64 3
2007 0.91 1.86 9
2008 0.15 0.11 42
2009 0.21 0.24 39
2010 0.53 1.00 27
2011 0.64 1.26 21
2012 1.81 3.97 1
2013 0.23 0.29 37
2014 0.28 0.40 35
2015 1.32 2.83 2

 

From 1901 Contiguous USA Mean Annual Temperatures exceeded +3 Standard Deviations for one year in 2012, not supporting Dr. Hansen’s view.

 

As yet therefore there is no clear signal of AGW in the regional record despite Dr. Hansen’s understanding of the expected impact.

 

 

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