The Canary in the coalmine

Water vapour is the dominant ‘greenhouse gas’ and the models projecting future warming rely on the positive feedback as water vapour content increases with warming.Whilst accepted as fact this is still a speculative theory, with little supporting evidence.

However the direct role of CO2 should be detectable where there is little water vapour, especially in deserts. A good location would therefore be Death Valley, where external influences, especially from water vapour, is limited.

The world record temperature of 134°F (57°C)  was set at Furnace Creek on July 10, 1913. when five consecutive days reached 129° F (54°C) or above.

If the temperature of the air is sensitive to CO2 content then temperatures in Death Valley should reflect this by reflecting the world temperature.

In fact this is not the case.

From recent annual data

http://weather-warehouse.com/WeatherHistory/PastWeatherData_DeathValley_DeathValley_CA_April.html

Rank  Rank
Mean Mean Mean
Year Minimum Maximum Temperature HADCRUT4
2016 6 21 13 1
2015 22 17 20 2
2014 4 11 4 3
2013 2 8 3 10
2012 13 18 17 13
2011 23 28 26 16
2010 45 44 44 4
2009 40 26 29 7
2008 17 23 21 17
2007 8 15 12 12
2006 28 39 32 7
2005 39 38 39 5
2004 9 21 15 14
2003 43 48 47 7
2002 18 13 17 10
2001 41 37 37 15
2000 13 3 8 21
1999 54 52 52 20
1998 56 49 55 6
1997 46 24 32 18
1996 18 12 15 28
1995 50 39 44 19
1994 27 19 21 24
1993 24 20 23 29
1992 9 4 5 32
1991 49 41 44 23
1990 12 7 10 21
1989 1 1 1 31
1988 41 41 42 25
1987 16 4 10 26
1986 24 29 27 36
1985 18 13 19 44
1984 48 43 43 43
1983 53 54 54 26
1982 26 46 39 42
1981 7 6 5 30
1980 36 30 29 33
1979 34 30 31 34
1978 44 50 50 46
1977 5 15 7 36
1976 36 45 41 56
1975 51 55 53 52
1974 29 32 28 54
1973 32 35 35 34
1972 30 24 25 47
1971 32 33 35 53
1970 52 51 51 44
1969 15 27 24 40
1968 34 33 37 50
1967 55 56 56 49
1966 21 9 14 47
1965 36 53 48 51
1964 31 36 32 55
1963 46 47 49 36
1962 3 2 2 41
1961 9 10 9 39

There is little correlation between Death Valley mean annual temperatures and HADCRUT4.4 (none are significant at the 5% level).

Minimum R2 =0.02 (p = 0.36)

Maximum R2 =0.05 (p = 0.09)

Mean R2 = 0.04 (p = 0.15)

Minimum temperatures, which should be most sensitive to CO2, are increasing, but not at a significant rate:

Death Valley Min

R2 = 0.03 (9p = 0.22)

This canary should be singing lustily, but no tweet since 1913.

Another frayed end of CAGW.

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